Power To Rule At The Italian Grand Prix

There’s value aplenty in the early betting markets for this weekend’s Formula 1 race from Monza, Italy. Traditionally the fastest of all the F1 circuits, Monza gives little hope to underpowered cars who can often counter a horsepower deficit with good aerodynamics which see them corner quicker than their pacier rivals. The Red Bull team is the perfect case in point.

But the fastest cars normally win the Italian Grand Prix which explains why nine of the last thirteen race winners have started on pole, including six of the last seven. What’s more, since 2004 the pole-setter has won the race and also set the fastest lap in the process five times. Unsurprisingly this is a Mercedes-fest and they have won here in four of the last five years.

Sunday - 1.00pm OddsWon/LostBet
Italian Grand Prix    
Tips Esteban Ocon Top Six Finish    Best Bet @ 6 / 4  
Force India Double Points Finish @ 8 / 11  
16.5+ Finishers @ 11 / 8  
No Safety Car @ 1 / 1  

The Force is Strong and the “Policy Designed”

The Force India team uses a fast and reliable Mercedes engine and it was looking set for a double points finish in Belgium last weekend before Sergio Perez attempted to push teammate Esteban Ocon into a wall. A court-martial was sure to have ensued and the official line from the team now is: “Both drivers are aware of a new team policy designed to prevent incidents like the ones in Spa from reoccurring.

Let’s hope that is the case as we are backing Ocon to take his fourth top-six finish of the current season and Perez to join him in the top-ten, giving the team a double-points finish which is available at 8/11 at William Hill.

Go High On Finishing Numbers

With the Force India drivers set to ‘not’ collide – something they have done a lot this season – the finishing numbers should be high here. They normally are, with 20-15-22-20-20-18-18 completing the race in the past seven seasons. In 2005 all twenty cars which set out completed this race.

Only twenty cars go to the grid this season but of those seventeen have seen the chequered flag in all of the last three races. Combined these stats make Bet365’s offering of 11/8 about 16.5+ finishers an attractive proposition.

Safety in Numbers

The ‘safety car’ market is a strange one. With it being used here just once in seven years you would imagine it is a long odds-on shot. But, thanks to it being necessitated in all but three of this seasons twelve races, it is considered an 8/11 shot.

We choose to go with course and distance form ahead of a season long preponderance and so it is the ‘no’ which gets our call at even-money (B365).

2017 Italian Grand Prix Odds

Visit paddypower Visit betfred Visit ladbrokes Visit coral Visit bet365 Visit betvictor Visit boyle Visit williamhill
- 5/6 - - 8/11 8/11 - 8/11
- 15/8 - - 9/4 9/4 - 9/4
- 11/2 - - 9/2 9/2 - 11/2
- 9 - - 12 12 - 12
- 20 - - 28 28 - 33
- 50 - - 66 66 - 66
- 750 - - 1000 1000 - 1000
- 750 - - 1000 1000 - 1000
- 750 - - 1500 1500 - 1000
- 750 - - 1500 1500 - 1000
- 1000 - - 1500 1500 - 2000
- 1000 - - 1500 1500 - 2000
- 750 - - 1500 1500 - 2000
- 1000 - - 1500 1500 - 2000
- 1000 - - 1500 1500 - 2000
- 1000 - - 2500 2500 - 2500
- 1000 - - 3000 3000 - 3000
- 1000 - - 3000 3000 - 3000
- 1000 - - 4000 4000 - 4000
- 1000 - - 4000 4000 - 4000

*Odds correct as of 31st Aug, 14:53. Odds are subject to change.


Posted: Wednesday, 30th August 2017
Author: Roy Brindley

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