Lewis Hamilton To Win The Japanese Grand Prix Is The Bet Of The Season

A long lap, high-speeds, long flat-out sections (67%+ at full throttle) means Japan’s Suzuka circuit demands a low-downforce configuration and, in turn, that means results from similar circuits, like Spa and Monza, can be relied upon as reliable form indicators for the Japanese Grand Prix.

Lewis Hamilton has claimed the gold medal at both those races this year and he has now won seven of the season’s 15 contests. Given he won here in 2014 and 2015 and lost the race at the start in 2016, it would take a brave man to oppose him this weekend. In fact, the only real surprise is his price. Odds of 11/8 (Ladbrokes) defy all logic and for our two-penneth this is the bet of the season.

Sunday 8th October - 5.30am OddsWon/LostBet
Japanese Grand Prix    
Tips Lewis Hamilton to win the race    Best Bet @ 11 / 8  
Over 16.5 total finishers @ 6 / 4  
Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 2 / 1  
Esteban Ocon to finish in the top-six @ 2 / 1  

One non-finisher in three years.

In other markets the line on the total number of ‘classified drivers’ looks very out. It has been set at 16.5 with a whopping 6/4 available about ‘higher’.

The last two races here have seen no retirements and there was just one here three years ago. The 2013 race may have seen three cars fail to finish but there was just one DNF again in 2011. Given these stats, and considering all but one of the 19 starters in Malaysia last weekend finished the race, there is every reason to believe 17 or more of the 20 starters will complete on Sunday.

Stroll can get some more points

Rookie Lance Stroll is worthy of a punt in the ‘points finish’ market at 2/1 with Paddy Power. The teenage Williams driver has been performing really well in recent races, often outpointing his veteran teammate, Felipe Massa. In fact he has finished in the points (a top-10 finish) in each of his last three starts and has a recent record of six-from-nine.

Amongst those ‘scoring tracks’ is a seventh position at Monza, a circuit very similar in its demands to Suzuka. Indeed his car is powered by a Mercedes engine and that is sure to suit this high-speed circuit.

For smaller stakes but on the same theory, Bet 365's 2/1 about Esteban Ocon making the top-six is a ‘play’. Ocon finished sixth in Monza and also breached the top-six in high-speed Baku. He’s another driver that possesses a Mercedes-propelled car.

2017 Japanese Grand Prix Odds.

Posted: Tuesday, 3rd October 2017
Author: Roy Brindley

Archive - Previous 5 Motor-racing Articles

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