Brendan Can Steele Victory At The Valero Texas Open

We went so close with last week's tip, Luke Donald, before we had to settle for the each-way returns on our 40/1 bet at the RBC Heritage and we now turn our attention to the PGA Tour's Valero Texas Open, which starts on Thursday...

Thursday 20th April - 8.30pm OddsWon/LostBet
Valero Texas Open    
Tips Brendan Steele (each way)    Best Bet @ 28 / 1  
Billy Horschel (each way) @ 33 / 1  
Ryan Palmer (each way) @ 40 / 1 P
Daniel Summerhays (each way) @ 75 / 1  

The Head Of The Market

First held in 1922, the Texas Open has been hosted by the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio since 2010 and it is a venue where windy conditions can make life very difficult, while the 7,435 yard track always tends to suit those who are longer off the tee.

It is Matt Kuchar who heads into this year's renewal as a 20/1 favourite after finishing in the top-fifteen in three of the past five editions of this tournament and the ultra-consistent American is certainly in form as he followed up his 4th place at Augusta with a tie for 11th at the RBC Heritage.

However, does Kuchar win often enough to justify a price of 20/1? Probably not.

The next best in the betting is defending champion Charley Hoffman, who is bidding to become the third player to win back-to-back Texas Opens after Justin Leonard (2000 and 2001) and Zach Johnson (2008 and 2009).

Hoffman loves this course as he racked up nine top-thirteen finishes in ten visits before finally winning last year but he is plenty short enough at 22/1, particularly off the back of his Augusta collapse and a missed cut at Harbour Town last week.

Best Bet

Our best bet of the week is another with course form under his belt as Brendan Steele won this tournament in 2011 and he has since finished 4th-46th-MC-8th-13th, with Paddy Power going 28/1 about his chances this week.

There is plenty to like about Steele as he is in the midst of a run of sixteen consecutive cuts made on the PGA Tour, including his win at the Safeway Open and a career-best tie for 27th in only his second appearance at Augusta.

Well rested, Steele ticks plenty of boxes and we do like the fact he ranks 5th for par-5 performance and 30th for driving distance stats on the tour this year.
Tip #1: Brendan Steele (each way) @ 28/1 with Paddy Power.

Horses For Courses

Billy Horschel is another with a fine record at TPC San Antonio as he has gone 3-MC-3-4 in his past four visits and he is priced 33/1 at this stage. A three-time winner on the PGA Tour, Horschel is plenty long enough off the tee and his tie for 4th at The Honda Classic earlier this year hinted that he is ready to go close again.
Tip #2: Billy Horschel (each way) @ 33/1 with Betfred.

Ryan Palmer is a Texan through-and-through and he will relish returning to his home state, where he has finished 6th and 4th in the past two years. Palmer's last win on the PGA Tour came at another tournament where the wind blows, the Sony Open in Hawaii in 2010, and he can build on his tie for 11th at the RBC Heritage from Sunday.
Tip #3: Ryan Palmer (each way) @ 40/1 with Betfred.

Finally, Daniel Summerhays doesn't fit the bill in terms of length off the tee but he is a player who thrives whenever he takes to the Oaks Course, where he has gone 7-2-4-13 in his last four appearances. Summerhays has struggled for form since finishing 3rd at the US PGA Championship in 2016 but successive cuts made at Augusta and Harbour Town hinted at better things to come.
Tip #4: Daniel Summerhays (each way) @ 75/1 with Bet 365.

2017 Valero Texas Open Odds

Visit Paddypower Visit Betfred Visit Ladbrokes Visit Coral Visit Bet365 Visit VCBet Visit Boyle Visit Williamhill
1/2 4/9 8/15 8/13 1/2 4/9 4/7 4/7
7/4 7/5 13/8 11/8 13/8 7/4 6/4 11/8
- - - - - - 33 -
40 40 40 40 40 40 33 40
- - - - - - 66 -
- - - - - - 66 -
40 35 25 25 33 40 33 25
- - - - - - 80 -
- - - - - - 80 -
- - - - - - 100 -
- - - - - - 125 -
150 90 80 80 100 150 80 50
- - - - - - 150 -
- - - - - - 150 -
- - - - - - 150 -
- - - - - - 200 -
- - - 200 - - - -
- - - - - - 200 -
- - - 200 - - - -
- - - - - - 200 -
- - - - - - 200 -
- - - - - - 250 -
- - - - - - 250 -
- - - - - - 250 -
- - - - - - 250 -
- - - 250 - - - -
- - - - - - 250 -
- - - - - - 250 -
- - - - - - 250 -
- - - - - - - 250
- - - - - - 300 -
- - - - - - 350 -
- - - - - - 350 -
- - - 400 - - - -
- - - 500 - - - -
- - - 500 - - - -
- - - 500 - - - -
- - - 500 - - - -
- - - - - - - 500
- 750 - 66 250 100 - 300
- - - 40 750 - - -
- - - 300 1000 - - -
- - - 200 1000 - - -
- - - 200 1000 - - -
- - - 400 1000 - - -
- - - 200 1000 - - -
- - - 500 1000 - - -
- - - 300 1000 - - -

*Odds correct as of 22nd May, 14:12. Odds are subject to change.


Posted: Tuesday, 18th April 2017
Author: Chris Knight

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