Super Bowl 51 Picks

11 wins from 11 bets throughout the playoffs ensured it was a bumper month for Betting Directory's NFL column in January and with just one more game left, we're looking to sign off in style with another winning weekend...

That game, of course, is the biggest of them all, Super Bowl! This year's matchup is between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons, where the Patriots are the 4/6 favourites to hand Head Coach, Bill Belichick, and quarterback, Tom Brady, a fourth Super Bowl victory, since they first joined forces in 2001.

The dynasty that the pair of them have created over the past 15 years, has been nothing short of remarkable, thrusting the duo in to the conversation for the greatest ever player and coach of all time. Victory in Houston on Sunday would all but confirm their standing in the game's history.

There's an old adage amongst punters who bet on the NFL that you never make money betting against the Patriots under Belichick and as such, anyone looking to oppose New England, should keep in mind that this is a team that has covered the spread in 15 of their 18 games this season.

However, don't be quick to write-off the Super Bowl underdog, especially when they are as good as the Atlanta Falcons - who are a 13/10 chance to lift the Vince Lombardi trophy.

The underdog has won the last five Super Bowls! Going further back, they have accounted for eight of the last nine winners, so do be wary if you are planning a big bet on the Patriots.

Atlanta thoroughly deserves its place in Houston, as they bid to win Super Bowl for the first time in the team's history, having previously played in the game on one previous occasion, back in 1999. The Falcons have had an incredible season, finishing with the league's best offense - averaging 33.8 points per game. They improved on that in their two playoff games, scoring 80 points!

New England aren't far behind on offense, scoring an average of 27.6 points per game during the regular season and scoring 70 points across the two games that saw them secure their place at Super Bowl 51.

It is no surprise that the total points spread for the game is the highest in Super Bowl history with the odds compilers projecting there to be 58.5 points in the game!

Super Bowl 51 TipsOddsWon/LostBet
Tips: Both Teams To Score In All Quarters
@ 6 / 1  
New England To Score in All Quarters @ 6 / 4  
Atlanta Falcons To Score In All Quarters @ 15 / 8  
Atlanta To Lead At The Start Of the Fourth Quarter And New England To Win Super Bowl @ 14 / 1  
New England To Lead At The Start Of the Fourth Quarter And AtlantaTo Win Super Bowl @ 16 / 1  

With such a high total, a case can be made for the points going both over and under the spread but the stronger lean is towards the over. When two teams with such explosive offenses collide, there is always the propensity for a shootout , especially when they are from opposing conferences - due to unfamiliarity. Add to that the must win scenario of Super Bowl and overs would be the call at 10/11.

However, based on the circumstances of this likely being a high scoring game, there are a number related bets that make more appeal at bigger prices.

The first is for both teams to score in all quarters at 6/1 with Skybet. If the total is anywhere near the forecast 58.5 points, that requires an average of over 14 points per quarter. For that to happen, there is a strong correlation that both these highly explosive offenses are going to find either the endzone or kick a field goal, in each of the four quarters. They haven't had an issue scoring points at any stage this season, so there's no reason why that should change in the final game of the season. As such, 6/1 looks too big, and should provide more than an added interest if the game plays out as the handicappers are predicting.

Skybet is also offering odds on either team scoring in each quarter, for which the Patriots are 6/4 and the Flacons 15/8, both of which stand out as great value singles. They offer insurance should one team not score in the already advised both teams to score points in all quarters, market. However, if both teams do score in all quarters, then this is a hat-trick of winners!

In 14 games that Tom Brady has started this season, New England has scored in every quarter in 12 of those games. Statistically, that is 85.7% of the time, which translates in to odds of roughly 1/5! If 6/4 is available about something that has happened on 85.7% occasions this season, then it makes sense to snap that up.

Atlanta has played 18 games this season, with quarterback, Matt Ryan, starting in all - of those games, the Falcons scored in all quarters in 10. In keeping with the same rationale as the Patriots being value, Skybet is offering 15/8 about an occurrence that has happened in 55.5% of games, which translates to true odds of 4/5!

There are a number of factors surrounding the game and how it could be played out, but the fact remains that the sample size for the three picks relating to points being scored in all quarters, hit when the implied game total was lower than 58.5. As such, both teams have scored points in circumstances and Sunday's clash is expected to see an extra 10 points above the combined season average totals of these two sides combined...

The eggs are all in one basket with these tips, but it makes sense to take advantage of outcomes relating to a high scoring game, where the chance of winning still remains even if the total doesn't exceed 58.5.

The spread for the game is -3 in favour of the Patriots, which implies that alongside a high scoring affair, it is also predicted to be close. A winning margin of just a field goal suggests that this could be an absolute thriller and it would be no surprise if was decided by whichever team has the ball on the final drive.

If this game does turn in to a scenario where it's end to end, then there are two stand out bets with Skybet. The first is for Atlanta to be leading at the start of the fourth quarter and New England to win at 14/1, with the other being New England to be leading at the start of the fourth quarter and Atlanta to win at 16/1. Whilst backing both of these will mean that one is guaranteed to be a loser, backing both provides an excellent chance of a landing a big price winner.

It's hard to envisage this game being a blow-out in favour of one team, so this should provide a more than lively interest during the final 15 minutes.

Overall, this promises to be a thriller of a Super Bowl and whilst it may appear to be sitting on the fence not to call an outright winner, the suggested bets are confident enough picks to provide more than a passing interest in one of sport's greatest spectacles.

Anybody desperate for a bet on who will be crowned Super Bowl winner should side with Atlanta, based on value - The 13/10 about a Falcons win, when everything points towards this being a 'pick 'em' game, looks great value. However, do not be surprised if Tom Brady and Bill Belichick re-write the history books

Posted: Friday, 3rd February 2017
Author: Tony Smith

Archive - Previous 5 American-football Articles

Back The Falcons And Patriots To Score In Every Quarter NFL Playoff Picks Conference Championships
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Atlanta And New England Tipped To Cover, Along With Points In Dallas NFL Playoff Picks Divisional Weekend
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