The Epsom Derby odds are dominated almost totally by Irish horses, six of which are trained by Aidan O'Brien, who seems to be making a determined bid to land his third Derby. Up until the time when his six jockey's were allocated their mounts, it had been a conundrum for punters to work out who the lead horse really was. It was thought by most that Johnny Murtagh will ride it whoever it is, but it is now confirmed that he will ride Rip Van Winkle and punters are now not so sure.
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It is true that Rip Van Winkle received plenty of support initially, when rumours circulated that Murtagh would take the ride his odds shortening from 11/1 to around 6/1 and it is also true that he has shortened slightly again to 9/2 once Murtagh was confirmed, it is pointed out however that he is still available at 5/1 with VC Bet
We think that first and foremost that Murtagh is a lead jockey and a professional from a stable who often use tactics to get a winner home. Murtagh might well win on his chosen mount but we doubt that he has been given any cast iron guarantees and we further believe that at least two of the other O'Brien horses have better credentials.
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It is frustrating for punters to select a winner from such a difficult equation and perhaps the best option is to ignore the O'Brien horse's altogether.
The John Oxx trained Sea The Stars was the impressive winner of the 2000 Guineas and his odds have shortened a little more to around the 3/1 mark. He has the proven class and if he stays he should win and with odds of around 3/1 - 10/3 with Stan James he would be our recommendation.
3/1 Sea The Stars, Fame And Glory, 9/2 Rip Van Winkle, 7/1 Gan Amhras, Black Bear Island, 11/1 Masterofthehorse, 20/1 Age Of Aquarius, 25/1 Kite Wood, Crowded House, 33/1 Bar
Posted: Friday, 5th June 2009
Author: Dan Forest
Tags: bet365,
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