The Derby Tips are coming in thick and fast and proving that also that the race is a very open one this year. There is no doubting that the top six in the betting have all got claims, they are quality horses and on the day, they are probably all capable of winning.
The Bookmakers have gone firm on making Casual Conquest the race favourite. Now that he is supplemented, it is all systems go and the Dermot Weld colt could well be the one to beat. He is in at around 3/1with online Bookmaker Paddypower and judging him on his form in the Derrinstown Stud trial in early May, he has to have a great chance.
Long time pre-race favourite, New Approach apparently remains fresh from his Irish 2000 Guineas defeat by Henrythenavigator and although he had been removed from the Derby betting, he has been re-submitted on the connections behest and at 11/2 with Paddypower and this represents good value. It should be remembered that he has only ever been beaten by Henrythenavigator, who does not run here and both races were over a mile.
Additionally, New Approach, was once, up until very recently, considered the best 3 Year old in training and a couple of second places to a top quality miler in Group 1 Classic races, does not make him a bad horse. He should fear none of the others in this field and the only doubt is his ability to stay the mile and a half at Epsom. He is however bred to do so and as he has proven in both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas he is very difficult to pass.
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Plenty of people like the chances of Luca Cumani’s Curtain Call. He has been high up in the betting for some time but on paper he has a lot to do here. The softening ground however will suit him, but his lack of a serious competitive run might not, he has only run a small listed race this season, which he won comfortably, but in so doing did nothing to enhance his Derby credentials. He is in and around 6/1 to win the race and if he manages it, he will have maintained Luca Cumani’s sequence of Derby wins that end with the year 8. He won in both 1988 and 1998.
It could hardly be a Derby these days without a tip for Frankie Dettori. He won in convincing style last year on Authorised, but it is extremely doubtful that his mount this year is as good. Frankie rides Rio de la Plata for his Godolphin stable this year and is given a good each way chance, particularly at odds of 25/1Paddypower and also in light of his recent fast finishing second to quality French colt, Falco.
Frozen Fire has received plenty of support, but this is not surprising as he appears to be Aiden O’Brien’s lead horse. Punters should watch to see who stable jockey, Johnny Murtagh selects before making their bet. Frozen fire was narrowly headed by Tartan Bearer in the Dante Stakes and looks like he could come on significantly for the race, as do most of O’Brien’s horses.
Tartan Bearer is Sir Michael Stoute’s main contender and he has already proved himself by winning the Dante. He is a tough horse who timed his run to perfection last time out and with a very confident Ryan Moore on board he is another good tip. Stoute also runs Tajaweed and the supplemented Dr Fremantle.
Betting is as follows: 3/1 Casual Conquest, 5/1 Curtain Call, 11/2 New Approach, 11/2 Tartan Bearer, 8/1 frozen Fire, 25/1 Rio de la Plata.
Posted: Saturday, 7th June 2008
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