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When England stroll out onto the turf at Hamilton on Tuesday (March 4th), they will know that their Test reputation – and the captaincy of Michael Vaughan – is in dire need of a boost. England have only won two Test series out of eight since the summer of 2005, when they famously won the Ashes, and have seen their ICC Test ranking slip from second to fifth in the process. England have lost nine of their last 16 away Tests over recent years, including a 5-0 hammering on their last antipodean adventure. New Zealand are however a different prospect to their Australasian cousins, having won only 17 of their past 40 Tests at home. And England secured a morale-boosting 3-0 series victory last time they hosted the Black Caps in 2004.
But the form the Kiwis have shown over the warm-up ODI series has issued some harsh warning signals to the tourists: England failed to bowl out their opponents in any of the five matches. Meanwhile opener Brendan McCullum notched up scores of 80, 78, 58 and 42, destroying the best of England's bowling attack and combining well with opening partner Jesse Ryder (79, 39 and 31). Despite his heroics, McCullum is only 8/1 to top-score over the series for his side, sending out ominous signals to the England attack. Stephen Fleming - aiming to end his glittering Test career on a high - is 3/1 on to top-score, while J How, architect of a 139 hitting spree off 116 balls, is close behind at 4/1.
To stop the big-hitters, England will need a fine performance as their optimum bowling attack comes back together. Injury-stricken Matthew Hoggard returns to the fold and will hope to generate considerable swing on the Hamilton crease, while fast-bowler Steve Harmison will be looking to re-establish himself as one of the world's most feared pacemen. Taking 5-100 in a warm-up game has bolstered his confidence, but preliminaries have also dealt a blow to England's bowling prospects, with Chris Tremlett incurring a side strain and ruled out of the series. Youngster Stuart Broad was England's top wicket-taker in the ODI series, but is only 10/1 to repeat the feat in the Test environment. King of Swing Hoggard is 2/1 on to give the Black Caps their most testing spells, while Ryan Sidebottom, averageing 34 in the ODI series, is 5/2 second favourite. Spin sensation Monty Panesar and paceman Harmison are both 4/1 shots.
On the batting front it is Kevin Pietersen who may hold the key to England's success. The 3/1 favourite for England top-scorer has notched up 165 runs over five innings in the ODI series but is yet to hit top form – and in the past has shown himself to be equally accomplished in Test and one day batting. Alistair Cook, ODI series top-scorer with 184, is 4/1 second favourite to repeat his supremacy in the Test series, while returning captain Michael Vaughan is also 4/1. Andrew Strauss could also prove an asset to the batting line-up, but could also be a liability at the top. The erratic opener is 5/1 to top-score, but could lose his place to in-form Owais Shah.
Posted: Saturday, 1st March 2008
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