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Sri Lanka are 11/10 front-runners for the first Test and resounding 8/11 favourites for a home series victory, but neither side will go into Saturday's taste in Kandy with confidence in an established line-up. The sub-continental stars have axed middle order batsman Thilan Samaraweera for the first Test, but his absence may not be as disorientating as that of marvellous Marvan Atapattu – with the veteran retiring from international duty. His absence leaves two of Sanath Jayasuriya, Michael Vandort, Jehan Mubarak and Upul Tharanga to battle for the opening spot, with Jayasuriya – whether he opens or not – still a volatile 4/1 chancer for Lankan series top-scorer. But his work could be cut out by middle-order magician and captain marvel Mahela Jayawardene, who at 5/2 could make his experience count and become the England attack's biggest punisher.
Under his leadership Sri Linka have won nine of 16 Tests, with Jayawardene gaining 6,797 runs over 90 Tests – an average of just under 50 that will worry England's depleted bowling attack. Steve Harmison was able to bowl just ten and a half overs in the weekend's second President's XI warm up game, taking his total to 16 for the preparation period. But while Harmison is unlikely to start, further harm to the seam attack could be spared by Jimmy Anderson pulling through his ankle knock. He took the final wicket in the encouraging second-time-round victory over the President's XI this week, but could still be under-par in Saturday's tougher test if dogged by his ankle. With Chris Tremlett waiting by the phone, the England selectors have refused to call up replacement seamers.
Meanwhile England's batting attack has looked shaky – and will be severely tested by spin magician Mutthiah Muralitharan, who will likely be hell-bent on breaking Shane Warne's test wicket record against England's easy pickings. Defeat of the President's XI came by virtue of promising half centuries from Kevin Pietersen and Alistair Cook, but Ian Bell and Michael Vaughan continued to show worrying form. Despite impressive one-day series victory over Sri Lanka just months ago, England's batting performances were far from fool-proof, with only the tough Cook averaging above 30. Kevin Pietersen (9/4) is still favourite at test level to top-score in the series for England (closely followed by 4/1 Vaughan and Cook) – and his side will need his commanding displays to sure up the shaky foundations that England's openers often leave.
Nasser Hussain's heroics in the final test of the 2001 series pipped Sri Lanka at the post, while the most recent 2004 Sri Lankan Tests saw the hosts hammer England at the last after two hard-fought draws. Even so, a Sri Lankan 3-0 whitewash is short at 7/1, while a 2-1 series success for the hosts, at 6/1, may be a more realistic possibility.
Posted: Friday, 30th November 2007
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