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Betting On Uk's 3rd Quarter GDP: Bookies Favour 0 to 1% Growth

Well the bookmakers continue to expand their novelty markets and encourage their punters to take on the city boys and Paddy Power is no exception. The bookmaker is no longer just the haunt of the ardent sports fan, but with the advent of online betting, a whole swathe of the population, who had no knowledge of the gambling world, is now becoming familiar with the fun of a punt. The priciples are of course the same whether forecasting a winner at the 2 o clock at Goodwood or the next Pope; assessing the possible options/contenders, gathering as much information as possible and making an informed (rather than emotional) decision. On the back of last week's GDP statistics, Paddy Power are offering a book on the UK's growth rate in the third quarter of this year.

The background story is easily gleaned. After plunging into recession in 2008, re emerging in the last quarter of 2009, by the final quarter of 2010 the UK economy contracted again, something that was blamed largely on the bad weather. Whilst it was hoped that growth would be observed as 2011 progressed last week's figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), whilst positive were less than impressive. As the boys in the City forecasted, growth stalled at 0.2%, and the FTSE Index dropped in response.

The poor figures were explained by the loss of a working day with the Royal Wedding, (although the hospitality industry certainly gained revenue) the after effect of the Japanese Tsunami and the first phase of Olympic Ticket Sales emptying people's pockets. Whilst this ticket issue grossed £300m, as pre payments they do not feature in the ONS's stastistics but will only appear when the events have taken place next year. Even though these figures can be readily explained, the Coalition is going to be under increasing pressure from Milliband and the Labour Party and even from Vince Cable of the Liberal Democrats to temper the astringency of the £81billion spending cuts package to boost consumer confidence.

Paddy Power favours the 0% to 1% growth option at Odds of 4/7 and whilst this looks likely it will not be news that David Cameron and George Osbourne will want to embrace. However, it would certainly be a better option than TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber has warned against, that is if the government does not ease it's austerity measures, in either their length or depth, the economy is in real danger of stagnating or worse, on which odds of 2/1 can be secured. Next year's Olympics will certainly give a boost to both economy and revenue (of government and bookmakers alike), and it may be that the government will not temper their economic policy whilst that pot of gold sits at the end of next year's fiscal rainbow, although many will argue that that is misconceived in the long term aim of solving the nation's deficit and Kick starting the economy.

UK GDP 3rd Quarter 2011 Odds

Odds plus a host of Novelty Betting Opportunities courtesy of Paddy Power

0% to 1% growth 4/7

Negative growth 2/1

More than 1% growth 9/2

Posted: Friday, 29th July 2011
Author: Suzi Flute
Tags: current affairs, david cameron, george osbourne, ftse index, paddypower,

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