AV Referendum Odds: First Past The Post Or Not?
The Liberal Democrat Party are about to receive probably the only fillip to their time in power with the Conservatives, by way of the impending referendum on AV ( The Alternative Voting System). Nick Clegg whose rise from obscurity last year was mesmeric has since disillusioned many of the party faithful with his apparent support of the severe economic cuts especially in the field of education, a subject which the liberals had always seemed to champion. The promise of a referendum on the voting system was originally a deal maker in the hung parliament dilemma last year, but will the electorate be as excited or interested by the process? Bookmakers Paddy Power have unsurprisingly opened a book on the subject, concentrating not only on the outcome but also the turnout.
In the 2010 General Election 65.1% of those eligible to make their mark turned out, will this be higher or lower under the circumstances?. For Nick Clegg proportional representation would have been the real prize but David Cameron and his cohorts were unwilling to go that far so the spate of strange videos and PR stunts to explain the whole process are growing in number. The AV dilemma has been demonstrated by showing kids voting for their favourite crisps and even wild animals voting for their King of the jungle, all in a desperate attempt to simplify the complexity of the system and encourage the electorate to take part in May.
The last referendum in 1975, over the UK's membership of the EU, saw 64% turning out. At the time there was a rampant debate on the subject with many viewing the possibility as a real challenge to the UK's sovreignty with others viewing it as the only way to protect the country's future economy. The AV debate is only just gathering momentum with all the background noise of swathing cuts and recession dominating the political agenda, but the main players are just starting to crank up their arguments in recognition of how this really could change their potential for power in the future.
There will now be more endless demonstrations of how the alternative vote could change the political landcape, many outlining the same process and coming to completely different outcomes. Individuals within the same party are already in combat, none entirely sure whether they should protect their future in the power stakes or be seen to opt for a more balanced and representational form of government.
By the time the first weekin May comes around it may well become clear that whether the wild animals vote for the leopard or the lion, the political diatribes are as ever an un-navigable jungle!
AV Referendum Odds
Odds plus a host of Novelty Betting Opportunities courtesy of Paddy Power
AV Referendum Turnout
45.01 to 50% 15/8
40.01 to 45% 15/8
35.01 to 40% 3/1
Less than 35% 4/1
50.01 to 55% 9/2
More than 60% 11/2
55.01 to 60% 8/1
Referendum on Electoral Reform Result
Fail (Rejected by the people) 1/7
Pass (Changes brought into Law) 9/2
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