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AV Referendum Odds: Disinterest Looks Certain

The global political landscape is in more of a state of flux than it has been for decades. The war in Afghanistan continues, the fallout in Iraq is still being negotiated, the 'Arab Spring' in the Middle East has governments in a state of alert, Libya is now entrenched in a checkmate, the American economy is plummeting along with Portugal and Greece and Ireland and one of the most robust economies has almost been demolished by an earthquake and the fear of radiation. Osama Bin Laden has now been shot by the US administration and somewhere amongst this one of the greatest changes to British democracy has unsurprisingly been sunk. Bookmakers Paddy Power do have two books on the subject, one on the numbers that will turn out and the other on whether or not the AV system of voting will be adopted by the British public.

Ironically, the very nature of political systems is at the heart of much of the unrest in the world, the 'Arab Spring' is certainly motivated by a desire for greater freedom and democracy and Western populations are having to swallow swinging cuts by the powers that be to rebalance the state books. Given this is the case the nature of the electoral system should be front and centre of peoples thoughts, but when there is so much change, the status quo, whether appropriate or not is often more enticing. 'Better the devil you know' and all that.

Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats banked on a change in the political system to justify their loss of a voice when joining with the Conservatives last May, but as their message has become more diluted with their partnership and their electability weakened as a result, the one prize they had hoped to ensure looks extremely unlikely to happen.

AV, whilst not Rocket Science is complicated enough to disinterest the voters who are more concerned that house prices are falling, unemployment is increasing and prices are rising. Endless attempts to illustrate the potential viability of AV through videos of Children choosing crisps or students chooosing between going to the pub or a coffee bar, seem so irrelevant at this moment in time that Nick Clegg looks almost certain to be disappointed. Ironically whilst a very short price, 1/66 with Paddy Power that the motion will be defeated, it also makes it almost a certainty. That's a real challenge to the average punter!

AV Referendum Odds

Odds plus a host of Novelty Betting Opportunities courtesy of Paddy Power

Electoral Reform Result

Fail (Rejected by the people) 1/66
Pass (Changes brought into Law) 14/1

Posted: Thursday, 5th May 2011
Author: Suzi Flute
Tags: awards, arab spring, osama bin laden, nick clegg, paddypower,

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