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South Africa v Wales Odds: Springboks Huge Favourites in Vital Pool D RWC Encounter

South Africa are massive odds on favourites to beat Wales in this Pool D opening 2011 Rugby World Cup fixture in Wellington, which is also the first game for the ‘Boks’ in defence of their world crown. Ladbrokes make them 1/6 odds on to win, while quoting Wales at a more than reasonable 5/1 to claim the points themselves with the draw being a typical 25/1 chance.

Wales coach, Warren Gatland has already intimated that his team will be going all out to gain, what would only be a second Welsh win over the ‘Springboks’ in their history. Gatland knows that defeat in this so called ‘Pool of Death’, would put his team under pressure to beat the likes of Samoa and Fiji, teams that they have lost to in the past and it was Fiji of course who ended Welsh hopes in the 2007 World Cup. Even if Wales came through as runners up in the Pool, in all likelihood it would probably mean a quarter final against Australia, which is why an unlikely win in this opener against the defending champions would be vital.

To that end, Gatland has selected an exciting line-up, although it does not include regular fly half, Stephen Jones who is out with a back problem. Nor does it include prop, Gethin Jenkins or former skipper, Ryan Jones, who are both nursing calf strains and are two players that have proven vital to the forwards in recent matches. ‘Eyebrows’ were also raised when it was learned that Rhys Priestland will replace Jones at number ten, with many preferring the more experienced option of James Hook, who has to settle for the full back position.

The only player missing from an otherwise full strength ‘Springboks’ team is second row, Bakkies Botha, but his replacement, Danie Rossouw is not a bad one and is vastly experienced. Indeed the team overall is vastly experienced boasting an incredible 815 caps between them, sixteen of the squad to play on Sunday for instance were involved in the 2007 RWC Final win over England in Paris.

Amazingly the two teams have never met each other in the World Cup previously, but there head to head record over the years is overwhelmingly in favour of the world champions. In 25 matches played South Africa have won 23, Wales just 1 and there has been one drawn.

There is nothing in the stats then to suggest that Wales can win this match, but they will take heart in the fact that the Springboks have not been at their best in 2011. They lost three of their four Tri Nations tests, although the one win they did achieve was against New Zealand where they had to thank the boot of Morne Steyn who scored all 18 points in the 18-5 victory. Wales on the other hand come to New Zealand in good heart after warm up international wins over England and Argentina and with a team very capable of scoring tries, particularly from wingers, George North and Shane Williams as well as Hook, who scored a great try against England. North and Williams are both quoted by ladbrokes at 10/3 to score a try at anytime in the match, while Hook looks an exceptional option with odds of 11/2 from the same Bookmaker to get over the Springbok line during the 80 minutes. Favourite to score the first try of the match however is ‘Boks’ winger, Brian Habana who is a 9/1 shot while his fellow winger JP Pietersen is one point behind at 10’s.

For fans of Wales this is a match where the heart says it will end with a Welsh victory but which is contradicted very quickly by the head, which cannot look any further than a close South African win. Whatever the result, the match has every chance of being an end to end battle with the plucky Welsh putting up a huge battle and taking it to the ‘Boks’ particularly in the early part of the game. On that basis Wales might well be a good bet at around 5/2 to win the First to Ten Points Race.

Wales v South Africa Tips

Tip 1: Wales to win the Race to Ten Points @ 5/1 with Ladbrokes.com
Tip 2: Brian Habana to Score Last Try @ 9/1 from Ladbrokes.com
Tip 3: South Africa to win by 6-10 Points @ 9/2 from Ladbrokes.com.

Wales v South Africa Odds

Match Odds

1/6 South Africa
5/1 Wales
25/1 Draw

First Try Scorer Odds

9/1 B Habana
10/1 JP Pietersen
12/1 J Fourie
14/1 J de Villiers
14/1 S Williams
14/1 F Steyn
14/1 G North
20/1 BAR

Winning Margin Odds

4/5 South Africa 13+ points
7/4 South Africa 11-20 points
2/1 South Africa 1-12 points
2/1 South Africa 1-10 points
3/1 South Africa 21-30 points
4/1 South Africa 11-15 points
9/2 South Africa 6-10 points
9/2 South Africa 16-20 points
5/1 Wales 1-12 points

The odds for this match have been kindly provided by Ladbrokes.com who, as usual will be operating a comprehensive betting service throughout the 2011 RWC

Posted: Friday, 9th September 2011
Author: Rodney Wise
Tags: rugby world cup, pool d, wales, south africa, ladbrokes,

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