Is it just possible that the Bookmakers are maligning Argentina by quoting England at 1/7 odds on with Bet365 to beat them in this opening Pool B fixture in the 2011 Rugby World Cup? After all, Argentina made it through to the last four in the 2007 RWC and are level at 2-2 in the last four test matches that the two nations have played against each other. The same bookmaker also quotes the ‘Puma’s’ to win this match with odds of 5/1 with the draw at 33’s.
It is true that Argentina has only played one test match in 2011 which came against Wales last month where they were beaten by 28-13. It was not a great performance, particularly as they dominated the Wales pack for the first 30 minutes or so, an aspect of the game where the ‘Puma’s’ have excelled in recent years. Nonetheless they did manage to score a try from a rolling maul late on and showed enough determination to give Martin Johnson and his England players plenty to think about.
Six Nations Champions, England of course were also beaten by Wales at the Millennium Stadium by 19-9, just a week before where they failed to score a try and were often left floundering in open play, where Wales looked by far the superior team by midway through the second half. It was hardly a confidence booster at the time, but it did not stop England from going on to defeat Ireland 20-9 in the last of their warm up games before travelling to New Zealand. That win should put them in a better frame of mind before taking on Argentina.
Johnson has decided to go with a near full strength side for the match and as expected has included the dynamic Leicester centre Manu Tuilagi to play alongside captain for the match, Mike Tindall. He has also selected Delon Armitage on the wing to replace Mark Cueto who has a minor injury and has the free scoring Chris Ashton on the other wing, with the exciting Ben Foden at full back. At half back Johnson has gone for experience and steadfastness in selecting Jonny Wilkinson to play with scrum half, Richard Wigglesworth. It could prove a very wise decision particularly as Wilkinson, who will be playing in his fourth World Cup, has an absolutely incredible record in the tournament, notching up 249 points at a match average of 16.6 points per game.
There are no surprises in the pack, with Tom Croft coming in for the appointed team skipper, Lewis Moody who is yet again unfit to take his place in the team. The performances of the two packs could easily determine the outcome of the match. It will be a trial of fluidity from a very mobile England and vast experience and stubbornness from the Puma’s, who would like nothing more than to take on the English pack in a war of attrition. It is interesting to note that the Bookmakers are reporting plenty of support for Tuilagi to begin the tournament with a bang and score the opening try of the match, for which he has odds of 9/1 with bet365 to achieve.
Argentine coach Santiago Phelan made just one expected change from the team that lost to the Welsh last month with Gonzalo Tiesi preferred at outside centre to Marcelo Bosch. Fly-half Felipe Contepomi, who formerly played for Leinster in the Magners League in Ireland will captain the side once again where he will be relied on to at least match Wilkinson in the kicking department. The experienced number ten has scored a total of 99 RWC points in 13 games played but his continued inclusion strongly suggests that Argentina will be looking to play to an almost exclusively territorial biased strategy, with Contepomi prompting the forwards, and the remaining players concentrating their efforts on defence.
In overall terms England should win this match, but it might not be as emphatic as the Bookmakers suggest. Both teams know that this game is crucial as far as the outcome of the Pool is concerned, with both having to face a rapidly improving Scotland in the next couple of weeks. They also know that second place in the Pool would almost certainly mean a quarter final against the All Blacks and a probably early plane home. This is why that this game has the potential to go ‘down to the wire’; it would be no surprise to see England hanging on to a narrow lead by the end of the 80 minutes. A winning margin for England therefore of between 6-10 points looks a more than reasonable bet which can be backed at 11/2 with Bet365. It probably will not be the highest scoring game of the World Cup either which is why the odds of 5/6 for under 42.5 points have plenty of appeal in the Total Points Market with Bet365.com.
England v Argentina Tips
Tip 1: England to win match by between 6-10 points @ 11/2 with Bet365.com
Tip 2: Manu Tuilagi to Score Opening Try of the Match @ 9/1 with Bet365.com
Tip 3: Total Points will be under 42.5 @ 5/6 with Bet365.com
Match Odds
1/7 England
5/1 Argentina
33/1 Draw
First try Scorer Odds
13/2 Chris Ashton
8/1 Any Other Player
9/1 Delon Armitage
9/1 Manu Tuilagi
10/1 Ben Foden
14/1 Gonzalo Camacho
14/1 Horacio Aguila
14/1 Mike Tindall
16/1 Tom Croft
16/1 James Haskell
16/1 Nick Easter
16/1 Gonzalo Tiesi
18/1 Martin Rodriguez
20/1 No Try Scorer
Winning Margin Odds
8/11 England by 13+ Points
2/1 England by 1-12 Points
9/2 England by 11-15 points
5/1 England by 16-20 Points
11/2 Argentina by 1-12 points
11/2 England by 6-10 Points
6/1 England by 21-25 Points
7/1 England by 1-5 Points
8/1 Argentina by 1-5 Points
8/1 England by 26-30 Points
The odds reflected in this article have been provided by Bet365.com who always provide the widest range of markets for the 2011 RWC.
Posted: Friday, 9th September 2011
Author: Rodney Wise
Tags: rugby world cup, pool b, england, argentina, bet365,
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