Scotland coach Andy Robinson is clearly taking no chances for this opening Pool B match against Romania in the Rugby World Cup in New Zealand. Robinson has made eight changes from the side that defeated Italy in the last of the Scots World Cup warm up matches last month and it looks like a side that is close to being full strength. Little wonder therefore why Bet365 Bookmakers have made Scotland the 1/200 odds on favourites to win this match and why Romania only have odds of 28/1 to do the same.
One player retained from the Italy match is captain and lock, Alistair Kellock, who has so far shown that he is an inspirational leader on the pitch as well as being a great exponent of second row play. Also in the starting line up is Chris Paterson at full back who will be playing in his fourth World Cup and winning his 106th cap, while hooker, Ross Ford will be winning his 50th. Robinson has decided to run with Mike Blair and Ruaridh Jackson at half back, which means no place in the starting line-up for regular fly half Dan Parks or for Chris Cusiter. Sean Lamont has been included at centre where he played with such distinction in the Six Nations earlier this year; he will be joined in the centre by the powerful running Joe Ansbro, while the wing berths will be occupied by Simon Danielli and Max Evans. It is a very attacking set of backs and with Paterson in the team to score the goals, it would be no surprise to see Scotland get amongst the points in very quick time.
By making it through to the World Cup, Romania to the surprise of many will be joining an elite group of teams which have played in every World Cup since the inaugural event in 1987. They have never won through to the knock out stages, but with the exception of 1995 they have won at least one match every time.
Their record over the years against Scotland is not a great one, winning twice in twelve games played, the last of those coming in a World Cup warm up match in 1991 which the Romanian’s won by 18-12. The last ‘head to head’ came at the 2007 World Cup, which the Scots, comfortably won by 42-0, after scoring six converted tries, with Paterson scoring the first of those after just two minutes of play and maintaining a perfect six from six kicking ratio. With that in mind and Scotland almost certainly wanting to ‘get out of the blocks’ fast in this match, the 13/8 odds on offer from bet365 for Scotland to score a try as the First Scoring Play looks a more than reasonable bet. Those of you however who like to back the odd shock or two can get 14/1 odds about Romania scoring the first try of the match
The odds clearly tell us that Scotland will win this match, there is absolutely no doubt that they will. It is more a question of by how many which is why taking the safer and reasonable odds in the handicap will reap much greater reward, particularly in matches with a one-sided edge to them. Scotland for instance looks a great bet at Even Money to win the match at -35 but as an alternative they can be backed to win the match by a similar margin to the last head to head between the two nations. A win for Scotland of between 41-45 points in the Winning Margin market for example can be backed with odds of 13/2 also with Bet365.com.
Robinson is fully aware that Pool B is not an easy one to qualify from, particularly as their oldest rivals, England are the odds on favourites to win the Pool and Argentina in some markets are favoured above the Scots. It is therefore essential that Scotland take full advantage of their opening two fixtures, this one against Romania and next week’s match against the pool B outsiders, Georgia. Two big wins for Scotland will build plenty of confidence before they come up against the ‘big guns’.
Teams
Scotland:
C Paterson (Edinburgh); M Evans (Castres), J Ansbro (London Irish), S Lamont (Scarlets), S Danielli (Ulster); R Jackson (Glasgow Warriors), M Blair (Edinburgh); A Jacobsen (Edinburgh), R Ford (Edinburgh), G Cross (Edinburgh), R Gray (Glasgow Warriors), A Kellock (capt, Glasgow Warriors), K Brown (Saracens), J Barclay (Glasgow Warriors), R Vernon (Sale Sharks).
Replacements: S Lawson (Gloucester), A Dickinson (Sale Sharks), N Hines (Clermont Auvergne), R Rennie (Edinburgh), C Cusiter (Glasgow Warriors), D Parks (Cardiff Blues), R Lamont (Toulon).
Romania:
I Dumitras; S Ciuntu, C Gal, T Dimofte, M Lemnaru; M Dumbrava, L Sirbu; D Carpo, O Tonita, M Macovei, C Petre, V Ursache, P Ion, M Tincu (captain), M Lazar. Replacements: B Suman, S Florea, V Poparlan, S Burcea, F Surugiu, I Cazan, F Vlaicu.
Scotland v Romania Tips
Tip 1: Scotland to win at -35 @ Even Money on offer from Bet.365.com
Tip 2: Scotland to Score a Try in First Scoring Play @ 13/8 on offer from Bet365.com
Tip 3: Scotland to win by 41-45 points @ 13/2 on offer from Bet365.com
Match Odds
1/200 Scotland
66/1 Draw
28/1 Romania
Winning Margin Odds
5/1 Scotland by 31-35 points
11/2 Scotland by 36-40 points
11/2 Scotland by 26-30 points
13/2 Scotland by 41-45 points
13/2 Scotland by 21-25
8/1 Scotland by 46-50 points
9/1 Scotland by 16-20 points
First Scoring Play Odds
13/8 Scotland Penalty
13/8 Scotland Try
11/4 Romania Penalty
14/1 Romania Try
20/1 Scotland Drop Goal
20/1 Romania Drop Goal
These odds have been provided by Bet365.com who will be running a very comprehensive service throughout the 2011 Rugby World Cup.
Posted: Thursday, 8th September 2011
Author: Rodney Wise
Tags: rugby world cup, pool b, scotland, romania, bet365,
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