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Rugby World Cup Betting Preview: New Zealand Emphatic Favourites

The 2011 Rugby World Cup kicks off on Friday with hosts and hot favourites New Zealand opening proceeds with a match against Tonga in Pool A. The match is a timely one for the All Blacks who are coming off a defeat by Australia which ultimately cost them their Tri Nations crown and know that an emphatic win in this match will put them ‘back on track’ and firm them up as the favourites to win the tournament. Currently, the All Blacks are the 4/6 odds on favourites in the betting with Paddy Power to win the cup and they are 1/8 odds on in the Pool A betting to make it through to the quarter finals.

It would appear that only France would have anything like a chance against the ‘Blacks’ in Pool A, and they come to New Zealand in good form following two warm up wins against Ireland. France of course is the team that knocked the All Blacks out of the 2007 Rugby World Cup and more often than not they put up a good performance against them. They are also a team with a very good overall record in the World Cup, having reached at least the semi final in five of the six tournaments played. It makes sense therefore for punters to acknowledge that the qualifiers from Pool A will almost certainly be the All Blacks and France but such are the betting odds there is no real value for that outcome.

Les Bleus are 16/1 to win the World Cup outright but perhaps the bet to be on is to back them to reach the semi final for which they are 5/6 odds on or indeed back them to reach the final which carries odds of 10/3 in the Outright Winner betting market. France are also 8/5 to become the most successful Six Nations team in the tournament.

In Pool B it is England who are the 4/11 favourites to win, but this will be no formality, particularly with both Argentina and Scotland drawn in the same Pool. England takes on Argentina in the opening fixture on Saturday while Scotland opens up with a game against outsiders Romania. The betting is very close in Pool B between Argentina and Scotland as to which side will automatically qualify along with England for the quarter finals, with the Puma’s having the slight edge at 4/6 odds on while the Scots are at 10/11. Whoever finishes second will almost certainly be up against the All Blacks in the quarter’s which should ensure that Pool B remains interesting and competitive with the Scotland v Argentina match on 25th September potentially being the Pool’s biggest highlight.

Scotland does have a good recent record against Argentina, winning three and drawing once in their last four encounters, however they were beaten by them in the quarter finals of 2007 RWC in France. A difficult choice but the Scots are an improving force whilst Argentina’s most recent form has been less than impressive. The bet to be on arguably therefore is for Scotland to finish second behind England, a bet which carries odds of 13/8 in the Pool B betting market. England knows that finishing second in Pool B would almost certainly be rewarded with a quarter final against New Zealand, which is just one of the reasons why they will be looking for a 100% Pool B record giving them an eventual last eight match against France.

After winning their first Tri Nations title for ten years Australia will be high on confidence and should easily finish up in Pool C as the winners. Having beaten New Zealand just over a week ago, Australia, for many are the team to follow in this tournament, particularly as they have come good, unexpectedly in the past. They should have too much all round ability for their principle opponents in the Pool, Ireland and Italy which is why they have odds of 1/4 in the Pool C betting market.

Given their win over the All Blacks in the Tri Nations, Australia also look more than a reasonable bet to win the trophy outright with odds currently of 7/2 available from paddy power. Who qualifies from Pool C with Australia is a much harder call, but despite a run of defeats in their RWC build up, Ireland look to be the team to make the last eight and a match that will almost certainly pitch them against defending world champions, South Africa.

Pool D has already been called the ‘Pool of Death’ with at least three teams having a chance to join South Africa in the last eight. The ‘Boks’ of course will be back at full strength after making a less than committed effort in the recent Tri Nations and should have the power to comfortably win this Pool, but who qualifies with them between, Wales, Samoa and Fiji is not such an obvious pick. The Pool D betting suggests that Wales are virtually certain to qualify and they are quoted at 2/9 to do so, while Samoa are a great value 4/1 and Fiji, who it will be remembered knocked the Welsh out of the 2007 RWC in France, are 9/1. Whichever of the three finishes second will not relish the prospect of a last eight match against Australia, which makes this World Cup for them all about which of them qualifies.

With the New Zealand All Blacks expecting to win the tournament, punters should not look too much further than their three wingers, Cory Jane, Zac Guildford and Isaia Toeava to finish the tournament as the Rugby World Cup's top try scorer. Which of the three of course is the difficult question, but Jane looks at this stage as if he is the first choice All Blacks winger. With matches in Pool A to come against Canada, Japan and Tonga, it can be expected that the All Blacks will score a shedload full of tries with Jane being right there at the right time. His odds of 8/1 to finish top try scorer in the RWC looks a solid great value bet and one not to be missed.

Rugby World Cup Betting Preview

Outright Win Betting

4/6 New Zealand
10/3 Australia
8/1 South Africa
16/1 France
16/1 England
40/1 Ireland
80/1 Wales
175/1 Argentina
250/1 BAR

Pool A Betting

Winner:

1/12 New Zealand
6/1 France
150/1 Tonga
250/1 Canada
1000/1 Japan

To Qualify:

1/100 New Zealand
1/33 France
250/1 Tonga
1000/1 Canada
1000/1 Japan

Pool B Betting

Winner:

4/11 England
4/1 Argentina
9/2 Scotland
500/1 Georgia
1000/1 Romania

To Qualify:

1/25 England
4/6 Argentina
10/11 Scotland
50/1 Georgia
1000/1 Romania

Pool C Betting

Winner:

2/9 Australia
10/3 Ireland
50/1 Italy
500/1 USA
1000/1 Russia

To Qualify:

1/200 Australia
1/16 Ireland
13/2 Italy
80/1 USA
175/1 Russia

Pool D Betting

Winner:

1/6 South Africa
9/2 Wales
22/1 Samoa
50/1 Fiji
1000/1 Namibia

To Qualify:

1/100 South Africa
2/9 Wales
4/1 Samoa
9/1 Fiji
200/1 Namibia

These odds have all been provided by Paddy Power.com Bookmakers who will be operating live in-play betting services throughout the 2011 Rugby World Cup.

Posted: Wednesday, 7th September 2011
Author: Rodney Wise
Tags: rugby world cup, betting market, new zealand, australia, paddypower,

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