The Friday night match in the Aviva Premiership involves two of the form teams as Northampton Saints welcome Harlequins to Franklin's Gardens. The home side have been excellent on their own patch this season and are 3/10 odds on favourites to win the match, while Harlequins will be looking to do the double over their opponents and can be backed at 5/2 with Bet 365.
Quins won the last match between these two teams 26-13 back in September but Saints were missing plenty of their World Cup stars for that match and expect them to be much stronger on Friday. They welcome back their international stars and their only worry will be the fact that they'll lose those same players for next month's Six Nations.
Saints, currently third in the league, will be looking for revenge for that defeat earlier this season and expect them to look to start quickly, particularly as they have lost just one match at home this season. They are 4/6 on to score first on Friday and the method of the first score to be a Saints try can be backed at 4/1 with B365.
The Saints have lost just once in the league since September and they welcome Chris Ashton back from suspension. The England winger has signalled his desire to leave, possibly for Saracens, but he will have plenty to prove ahead of the upcoming Six Nations and he starts as the 15/2 favourite to be first tryscorer.
Northampton are without the injured Courtney Lawes though and his participation with England next month is in severe doubt. One man who definitely won't be playing for England is Harlequins' Danny Care, who has been left out by the national side after a turbulent week that saw him arrested.
Care is set to play for Quins though and Nick Easter is also set to start for a Harlequins side who have won their last eleven away matches in all competitions - a run that stretches back to April. They are bidding to do the double over Northampton for the first time since 2006/07 but they face a tough task in what is their third match in ten days.
There has been no more than an eight point winning margin in Quins' last three matches and they look a decent punt in the handicap market, with Bet365.com offering 10/11 for them to win with an advantage of +7 points.
Mike Brown, who has scored six tries in the Aviva Premiership this season, is likely to be a key man and he could be worth backing to be first try scorer at odds of 16/1. That looks decent each-way value at least as Bet 365 offer quarter the odds on the first four try scorers.
Harlequins may be seven points clear of Saracens at the top of the table but they have lost to Saracens and could only narrowly beat Exeter by one point in recent weeks. We fancy Northampton to edge this one and they can be backed at 9/2 to win by a margin of 6-10 points.
Northampton v Harlequins Tips
Tip 1: Harlequins to win with a handicap advantage of +7 points @ 10/11 with Bet365.com
Tip 2: Mike Brown to be first tryscorer (each-way) @ 16/1 with Bet365.com
Tip 3: Northampton to win by 6-10 points @ 9/2 with Bet365.com
Match Odds
3/10 Northampton
5/2 Harlequins
22/1 Draw
Handicap Odds
10/11 Northampton -7 points
10/11 Harlequins +7 points
16/1 Draw
Winning Margin Odds
5/1 Northampton by 1-5 points
9/2 Northampton by 6-10 points
11/2 Northampton by 11-15 points
13/2 Northampton by 16-20 points
13/2 Harlequins by 1-5 points
9/1 Harlequins by 6-10 points
14/1 Harlequins by 11-15 points
22/1 Harlequins by 16-20 points
Winning Margin Odds
15/2 Chris Ashton
8/1 Noah Cato
10/1 Ugo Monye
12/1 Ben Foden
14/1 Tom Williams
16/1 Mike Brown
16/1 James Downey
16/1 George Pisi
18/1 Jordan Turner-Hall
20/1 BAR
Odd provided by Bet365.com, who provide live in-running betting for all Aviva Premiership matches.
Posted: Thursday, 5th January 2012
Author: Chris James
Tags: guinness premiership, northampton saints, harlequins, chris ashton, bet365,
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