Amongst the tips for this week’s Welsh National at Chepstow is the Hennessy Gold Cup winner, Carruthers, who appears to have been specifically laid out to win the race. The 8 year old trained by Mark Bradstock will be amongst the top weights in a large field of runners, but that should not necessarily hinder his chances of a rare double, particularly as he will comfortably get the trip and will enjoy the decent ground.
Currently the Lord Oaksey owned gelding has odds of around the 8/1 mark with Ladbrokes but the likelihood is that he will shorten before the off and could even start favourite. A real good galloper who runs with great enthusiasm, Carruthers is finally realising the potential he showed as a youngster when connections believed him to be a Grade 1 standard horse. He finished fourth twice at the Cheltenham Festival, firstly in the RSA Chase in 2009 and then in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2010, when well behind Imperial Commander. His performance in last season’s Gold Cup is best forgotten but nonetheless it should take nothing away from a horse who now has proved his credentials as a major race winner.
One of those disputing favouritism with Carruthers is the last year’s winner, Synchronised, the mount of Tony McCoy who has also been the subject of a great number of tips. This 8 year old, could become the first horse since Bonanza Boy in 1989 to win the race two years running and it would appear has been trained to do so. Trainer, Jonjo O’Neill has put him over a couple of decent hurdle races as a prelude to Tuesday’s race in which he showed good form and plenty of enthusiasm and he will come to Chepstow extremely fit and raring to go. It is known that the stable are convinced that he is going to run a big race and with odds of around 7/1 also from Ladbrokes he is well worth supporting. That said there is some speculation that he will not be amongst the starters, with O’Neill considering the possibility of sending him to Ireland to take on the Grade 1 Lexus Chase.
Tips a plenty have also been seen for the Victor Dartnell trained, Giles Cross, second in last season’s rearranged race and an impressive winner of a decent handicap chase last month over 3m4f at Fontwell. He is the favourite currently with odds around the 13/2 mark with ladbrokes and is also being well backed on the exchanges. It is certainly true that there is plenty of stable confidence behind this great stayer and he could well go off as the clear favouirite on the day.
One of the tips that punters will no doubt take note of is the race trends of the Welsh National where perhaps significantly they will take heed of the fact that only one favourite, Silver Birch at 100/30 in 2003, has won the race in the last ten years. Should that trend continue of course then any of those mentioned above would be vulnerable should they go off as the ‘jolly’.
Should Synchronised not run then his stablemate, Galaxy Rock could be a very decent alternative. There has been plenty of speculation as to Galaxy Rock, who has been well prepared for this 3m5f race, by winning a very competitive Grade 3 Handicap at Cheltenham last month. On his day the seven year old has the beating of the field, but being only the second string from the O’Neill yard some caution is urged from an antepost betting standpoint.
Others who are coming in for support are the Richard Lee trained, Le Beau Bai, a redoubtable stayer who finished third in this race in 2009 but who won over three miles at Chepstow earlier this month. He is currently around the 11/1 mark a couple of points better than Cappa Bleu another solid stayer who has also won over three miles this season.
Trainer, Nigel Twiston-Davies has saddled two winners of this race and could well have a third in the pipeline with Viking Blond this year. Only a six year old, this horse won over three miles on this course in a novice chase back in October and was not disgraced when well beaten by Grands Crus in the Grade 2 GPG Novice Chase at Newbury last month. He could be one of the early front runners and if so he is capable of having them all at it as the race develops. He certainly looks a decent each way option with odds of around 11/1.
It is fair to say that this race is very open affair this year with any number in with chances. Synchronised might not take his place of course, which would strengthen the claims of his two major market rivals. However, Carruthers has already won a hard race this season whilst Giles Cross looked in great shape last time out and is well handicapped given his performance in the race last season. Despite being the likely favourite Giles Cross would be our tip to win the race while Viking Blond looks a strong case for the each way backers.
Winner: Giles Cross
Each Way: Viking Blond
Welsh National Odds
13/2 Giles Cross
7/1 Synchronised
8/1 Carruthers
10/1 Galaxy Rock
10/1 Viking Blond
10/1 Le Beau Bai
12/1 As De Fer
14/1 Cappa Bleu
14/1 Any Currency
18/1 Hey Big Spender
20/1 Chicago Grey
20/1 Cannington Brook
20/1 Master Overseer
20/1 Sona Sasta
20/1 Ballyfitz
20/1 Neptune Equester
25/1 Our Island
33/1 BAR
The odds for this article have been provided by Ladbrokes.com who will be operating a full online betting service throughout the Welsh National Meeting at Chepstow.
Posted: Monday, 26th December 2011
Author: Rodney Wise
Tags: welsh grand national, chepstow, tips, giles cross, ladbrokes,
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