The first of the so-called Festival bankers puts his reputation on the line in this opening race of the four day Cheltenham Festival. Dunguib has been favourite in the betting for this race since he won the 2009 Champion Bumper and his price has plummeted with each of his four victories this season. He is now as short as 4/5 odds on with most bookmakers, but he can still be backed with Paddy Power at 4/5.
Dunguib’s trainer, Phillip Fenton has done nothing but sing his horses praises, with the way he has been working at home and is clearly very confident that he has a great chance of winning the race. However, we think punters should just take one step backwards on this horse and note that a number of bookmakers seriously believe that he will be beaten in this. Indeed, Paddy Power Bookmakers have been running a promotion of refunding all losing bets made, should Dunguib win.
It is true that the 7 year old has won his four races over hurdles this season and has won them with ease, but his jumping was generally amateurish, getting away with many poor jumps, due to the small fields he was running against. In those races he had time to recover and compose himself before re-asserting his authority. He will certainly not get away with poor jumps in the Supreme Novices as the pace of the race will not allow for that and with a much bigger field he will not have the recovery time either. Add to the mix that only three favourites in the have won this race in the past 20 years, then the betting of 4/5 odds on him looks far from appealing.
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Having talked down the chances of Dunguib it is only fair to offer up an alternative and the one liked is the Jonjo O’Neill trained Get Me Out Of Here, who is unbeaten in five starts including a Grade three win a month ago at Newbury where he had the useful David Pipe pair of Mamlook and Ronaldo Des Mottes in behind as well as the highly regarded, Alan King trained, Manyriverstocross.
With betting odds of around the 6/1 mark offered by paddy power this six year old is in with a real chance and may be one of several that can finish in front of the favourite. A result that would clearly put smiles on the faces of the Bookmakers.
4/5 Dunguib
5/1 Get Me Out Of Here
10/1 Oscar Whiskey
10/1 Blackstairmountain
10/1 Menorah
16/1 Peddlers Cross
20/1 Bellvano
20/1 Flat Out
20/1 Dan Breen
25/1 BAR
Odds Kindly provided by Paddy Power
Posted: Tuesday, 16th March 2010
Author: Rodney Wise
Tags: cheltenham festival, cheltenham festival, dunguib, get me out of here, paddypower,
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