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Supreme Novices Hurdle Odds: Cue Card a good bet to beat the trends

Fifteen runners go to post in the 2011 Chetenham Festival curtain raiser, the Supreme Novices Hurdle, a Grade 1 novice hurdle run over two miles and half a furlong. Favourite for this year's renewal is the Colin Tizzard trained Cue Card, who won on his first two starts over hurdles earlier this season before being beaten by Champion Hurdle favourite Menorah in the International Hurdle in December. Bookmaker Paddy Power goes odds of 2/1 about the favourite, but are also offering an excellent concession, where if Cue Card wins the race, you'll be refunded the win part of your losing bet. The Tizzard's hold this horse in very high regard, since hacking up at odds of 40/1 in last season's Champion Bumper and with an official rating of 159, he is ten pounds well in on his closest rival in the betting.

Such was the start to Cue Card's novice hurdling season, connections had thought him good enough to contest the Champion Hurdle before sticking to the novice route. A debut win over hurdles at Aintree was impressive but it was his eight length win over Dunraven Storm in the Grade 2 Sharp Novices' Hurdle really got punters sitting up and taking notice. The five year old does have a number of trends to overcome if he's to become the 2011 Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner. For starters he is the latest in a recent line of short priced favourites for the race, bidding to do better than Dunguib last year and Cousin Vinny in 2009 to go on and win the race. Also, twelve of the last fourteen winners have won last time out, a trend Cue Card will have to overcome, beaten on his last racecourse appearance, albeit by Champion Hurdle favourite Menorah.

The betting is quite open in behind the favourite, with Spirit Son the second fav at 5/1 with Paddypower. The five year old trained by Nicky Henderson has won on his two starts this season and on his one appearance over in France before being snapped up by Henderson and owner Michael Buckley. Both wins have come with relative ease, winning as 8/13 favourite at Huntingdon in January and again at Exeter last time out by 21 lengths. Both wins have come on soft and heavy ground so there are question marks as to whether he'll enjoy the quick ground of Cheltenham, but he certainly seems to have decent each-way claims.

There are three horses all priced up at 8/1 next in the betting. Totesport Trophy winner Recession Prrof is an interesting runner for trainer John Quinn. Also having held an entry for the County Hurdle, he takes the same route as last year's Totesport Trophy winner Get Me Out Of Here in contesting this Grade 1 event. Al Ferof is another who could go on to better things. Finishing second to Cue Card in last year's Champion Bumper, the Paul Nicholls trained six year old fell on his debut at Cheltenham back in December but has since gone on to score with ease on his last two starts. Zaidpour is the shortest price of the Irish raiders. Having seen their odds on favourite get beat twelve month's ago, the Irish will be full of hope for Willie Mullins' five year old, who has been beaten twice since landing the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novices' Hurdle in December. This trio can all be backed at 8/1 with Paddy Power.

Further down the betting a there are a couple of interesting runners. Sprinter Sacre has drifted out to 9/1 since the news that stable jockey Barry Geraghty chose to ride Spirit Son for Nicky Henderson in the race. Geraghty had earlier described the decision as a coin toss but there's now four points between the two in the betting market. Hidden Universe is a 16/1 shot and finished fourth in the Delloite Novices' Hurdle last time out behind Neptune Hurdle favourite Oscars Well, whilst juvenile Marsh Warbler has decided to un in the Supreme opposed to the Triumph Hurdle and can be backed at odds of 20/1.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Odds

2/1 Cue Card
5/1 Spirit Son
8/1 Recession Proof
8/1 Al Ferof
8/1 Zaidpour
9/1 Sprinter Sacre
16/1 Hidden Universe
20/1 Gibb River
20/1 Magen's Star
20/1 Marsh Warbler
20/1 Dunraven Storm
50/1 Rathlin
50/1 Spanish Treasure
100/1 Far Away So Close
100/1 Sheer Genius

Odds supplied by Paddypower.com, going best odds guaranteed on all races at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival.

Posted: Monday, 14th March 2011
Author: Russell Lloyd
Tags: cheltenham festival, supreme novices hurdle, cue card, spirit son, paddypower,

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