With so little separating the odds of the market principles in this Grade 3 Lanzarote Hurdle renewal at Kempton Park on Saturday it will pay punters well to closely scrutinise some of the race trends.
Study of these race trends will reveal that no horse aged 8 or older has won the race since 1988, whilst since then six year olds have won it thirteen times. It should also be noted that winners have usually been those carrying 11-02 or less with the last one to win with 11-08 or more coming back in 1995.
With that in mind it is understandable why the David Pipe trained Decoy heads the betting market and why the Nick Williams entry, Swincombe Flame is only a point or two behind. Currently Decoy can be backed with odds of 6/1 from Paddy Power while Swincombe Flame is an 8/1 chance with the same Bookmaker. These prices could be particularly significant as seven from the last nine winners have all been returned with odds of 10/1 or less. It is always worth noting that Nick Williams won this race 12 months ago with James De Vassy.
Trainer Emma Lavelle will be pleased that the drying conditions have come in time so she can run her Well Regarded who has shown some very decent form since arriving at the yard from Ireland. Particularly eye-catching was his performance in three Grade 2 Hyde Novices Hurdle behind the very exciting Fingal Bay last November and he showed good form too when making his handicap debut in December when second behind Dubai Crest at Doncaster. He has been tipped by a number of racing pundits this week which is why Paddy Power Bookmakers has shortened his odds of winning to 10/1.
Also with odds of 10/1 is the Phillip Hobbs trained Featherbed Lane a winner of his last two starts, both in handicaps and where in the second of those he bolted up by 14 lengths in the Betfred Goals Galore Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f and he will be well suited by the extra furlong in this.
The booking of jockey Barry Geraghty to ride Act Of Kalanasi for Dr Richard Newlands could prove highly profitable for a trainer who has often walked away with big prizes in races such as this. Act Of Kalanasi was thought good enough to race in graded company earlier this season and has enough proven class about him to be amongst the best in this race. He too can be backed with odds of 8/1 from paddy power.
With odds of 12/1, Domatline from the Paul Nicholls stable is reasonably lightly raced and showed a good turn of foot when third behind the formidable Grandouet in the Betfair Hurdle on his last outing in November. Clearly a five year old with a touch of class, he could be capable of bucking the current trends and carry 11-06 to victory.
One horse that fits the bill on most counts is Drumshambo from the in form stable of Venetia Williams. Although stepping up to 2m5f for the first time the six year old looked very impressive when winning a very competitive handicap hurdle at the end of last year and is bred to stay longer. At 16/1 he most certainly offers excellent each way value.
6/1 Decoy
8/1 Swincombe Flame
8/1 Act Of Kalanasi
10/1 Featherbed Lane
10/1 Ohio Gold
10/1 well Regarded
10/1 Eastlake
12/1 Domatline
12/1 Lightening Strike
12/1 Drumshambo
14/1 Timesawastin
20/1 Rajdhani Express
20/1 Busker Royal
25/1 BAR
The odds for the Lanzarote Hurdle have been provided by Paddy Power.com whose online horse racing service is one of the very best available.
Posted: Friday, 13th January 2012
Author: Rodney Wise
Tags: lanzarote hurdle, kempton park, decoy, paddypower,
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