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John Smiths Foxhunter Chase Odds: Turko Looks Sound Bet to stop Baby Run

Twenty Three runners are set to go to post for the John Smith’s Foxhunter Chase at Aintree on Day One of the 2011 Grand National Meeting. This very exciting race for amateur riders will be the first of the meeting over the Grand National fences and will be headed in the betting by the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained, Baby Run with odds of around the 7/2 mark available from Paddy Power and will be ridden by the trainer’s 16 year old son William.

Baby Run was last seen three weeks ago in the Christies Foxhunter Chase at the Cheltenham Festival when blundering at the second last and unseating the same jockey when arguably still looking like the potential winner. In that race he attempted to make all and got very close to achieving the aim, before his error, nonetheless it is a tactic that he is likely to use on Thursday in order to take advantage of the 11 year old’s pace. Despite his two earlier Hunter Chase wins this season, it should be noted that he unseated his jockey (Sam Twiston-Davies) in this race last year clearly making him a somewhat risky favourite.

Next in the market is Turko who is owned and trained by Lucia Borradaile and is said to be in tip-top condition ahead of the race, This 9 year old has a bit of class about him, having won five times from nineteen attempts over fences but his best performance probably came in the Grade 1 Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup at Leopardstown in 2008 where he finished second behind The Listener. He has experience over the ‘National ‘ fences having ran in the 2008 Grand National where he fell at Valentines on the second circuit, when well behind. He was back in the winners enclosure last time out claiming the Chris Beek Racing Hunter Chase at Newbury at the back of end of March; always a good sign for a potential winner of this race. Currently he has odds of 5/1 available also from paddy power.

There are several key trends that punters need to look out for in this race, please note that these all apply to the last ten renewals:

Key Trends

10 from 10 winners have won over 2m4f
10 from 10 winners have won a chase either at Newbury, Fontwell or Sedgefield
9 from 10 winners have won at least twice over fences (under rules)
9 from 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase
9 from 10 winners had raced in the past 45 days

Baby Run’s early blunder in this12 months ago, paved the way for the race to be won by 50/1 outsider Silver Adonis, trained by Dr Richard Newland and ridden by Mr T Weston. The same team will be trying to repeat that success this year but have much shorter odds of around 14/1 to do so. He has not achieved anything too noteworthy since but neither had he before he won last year!

Others in with good chances include the Jonjo O’Neill 11 year old, Moncadou who will be carrying the familiar colours of JP McManus in the race. He was second in this last year behind Silver Adonis and is probably well worth a place bet this time around too. He is not the quickest but he stays this type of trip well and may be worth consideration with odds around the 10/1 mark. Kilty Storm, from the modest yard of Roger McGrath has been campaigned successfully in Point to Points this season, winning two from three and finishing third in the other. He impressed when winning a Hunters Chase at Leopardstown last season and ran very well when second behind Baby Run in the 2010 Foxhunters at the Cheltenham Festival. He is in with a big shout in this and should not be ignored as an each way possibility with odds of around 10/1.

Tips

Tip 1:Turko to win with odds of 5/1 from Paddy Power.com
Tip 2: Kilty Storm Each Way with odds of 10/1 from Paddy Power.com

John Smiths Foxhunter Chase Odds

7/2 Baby Run
5/1 Turko
10/1 Moncadou
10/1 Kilty Storm
12/1 Ice tea
12/1 Fort View
12/1 Herons Well
14/1 Silver Adonis
14/1 Mister Apples
18/1 Massini Man
20/1 Good Company
20/1 Boxer Greig
20/1 Kanesh
25/1 Offshore Account
33/1 BAR

Odds provided by Paddy Power.com who will have their usual array of special offers during the Grand National meeting, including this race.

Posted: Wednesday, 6th April 2011
Author: Rodney Wise
Tags: grand national, aintree, foxhunter chase, turko, paddypower,

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