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2011 Becher Chase Betting: Almost Waining Good Odds in Aintree Feature

We all get a decent look at some potential Grand National runners this weekend, with the running of that great betting race, the Listed Becher Chase over 3m2f over the Grand National fences at Aintree. Although this race has yet to produce a same season winner of the ‘National’, it has certainly provided many clues in the past, which is why it will be followed avidly by National Hunt (NH) punters. This year the race looks a very competitive affair with at least four entries vying for favouritism in the betting with odds of around the 7/1 or 8/1 mark. However, there are a number of others who should not be discounted.

Currently Paddy Power make Irish raider, Another Palm from the Noel Meade stable joint 7/1 odds against favourite in the betting along with the Paul Nicholls trained. Grand National hope, Niche Market. These two are closely followed in the market by last year’s winner, Hello Bud and the Peter Bowen trained Always Waining, both of which have odds of 8/1.

However such is the open nature of this year’s race that there are a number of others who are also being supported in the antepost betting market, which of course makes it very difficult to make a convincing selection. Notwithstanding, if the past trends of the race are anything to go by then punters should cross Another Palm off their list now as six year olds have never won the race and there has only been one aged 7 to have won in the last ten years.

Generally the race is usually won by horses aged between 8-10 and no horse has ever won the race in back to back which, despite the support in the betting rules out Hello Bud, who is also disadvantaged by now being 13 years old.

Of course trends are there to be bucked, but there is no getting away from the fact that all ten most recent winners had all finished in the first five on their last completed starts and had all won at least one race over 2m4f. Should this be the case again in Saturday’s race then Niche Market will not be winning, as he was 9th last time out, leaving only Always Waining as the pick of the top four in the market.

As far as the weights are concerned there has been no definitive trend established, with top weights and those running out of the handicap all having won in the past. Like the Grand National itself, the Bechers Chase has uniqueness and has become a race that is decided very much on the day.

Always Waining will carry 10-13 on Saturday and will come to the race very fit, after finishing a creditable 4th in a 2m6f Handicap Hurdle at Ffos Las a fortnight or so ago. This came after he had already been given a spin over a 3m Handicap Hurdle on the same course a couple of weeks earlier. Significantly perhaps, this was exactly the same type of preparation he was given by Bowen before he won the Topham Chase, also over the ‘National’ fences at Aintree back in April. He certainly fits the trends better than any other entry in the race, he has clearly been laid out to win, he is being well supported in the betting which is why he should definately be placed on the short list by all punters to win this.

With odds of 10/1 available in the betting from paddy power is the Victor Dartnell trained Nicto De Beauchene, a ten year old who will carry 10-07 in the race which he comes to having finished second in a Class 3 Handicap Chase over 3m1f at Bangor last month. On his day this horse is capable of winning the Bechers Chase although it will be a first time test for him over the ‘National’ fences, however he is from a stable ‘bang in form’ with a strike rate in chases this season thus far of 32%.

The David Pipe stable has already picked up a big handicap this season with Great Endeavour taking the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham last month. The same team, comprising of owner, David Johnson, trainer Pipe and jockey Timmy Murphy will be looking for a similar success with their entry, Swing Bill in this. The ten year old will be remembered for winning the Amateur Riders Handicap at the Paddy Power meeting last month and ran decently a fortnight ago when third in a Class 3 Handicap Chase at Ascot. Some would argue that this race will be one too many too soon, but the Pipe stable are renowned for their timing and with odds of 12/1 in the betting, he would certainly be a strong each way candidate.

As already mentioned this race is a very open affair which has only one real outsider in the starting line-up. Any one of the fifteen runners is capable of winning, but we have made the strongest case for Almost Waining, who should be certainly there or thereabouts at the finish.

Bechers Chase Betting

7/1 Another Palm
7/1 Niche Market
8/1 Hello Bud
8/1 Always Waining
10/1 Nicto De Beauchene
10/1 Rare Bob
10/1 Shalimar Fromentro
12/1 Swing Bill
12/1 Abbeybraney
12/1 West End Rocker
14/1 Max Bygraves
16/1 Merchant Paddy
20/1 BAR

The betting odds for this race have been provided by Paddy Power.com who will be operating their usual high class online service throughout the day’s racing at Aintree.

Posted: Friday, 2nd December 2011
Author: Rodney Wise
Tags: aintree, becher chase, almost waining, paddypower,

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