Bookies will be running for cover on Saturday if the well backed Nationalism can justify its support over the last seven days by winning the Totesport Cambridgeshire at Newmarket. The John Gosden trained three year old is the favourite (as short as 7/2 with some firms) in the betting to land the first leg of the Rowley Mile's famous 'Autumn Double' after being a 7/1 chance at the start of the week.
The plunge started after Nationalism won at Goodwood three weeks ago, running out a comfortable three length winner over 1mile 1furlong, the same distance as Saturday's feature. That victory sees him carry a 4lb penalty in the Cambridgeshire but still, he looks well in at the weights and with only four runs to his name after only making his racecourse debut in June, there is likely to be further improvement to come which is why he's been all the rage amongst punters with some lucky enough to have bagged prices ranging from 12/1 - 20/1 straight after that Goodwood win.
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However, in an interview during the week, John Gosden, who is bidding to win the Cambridgeshire for the third time in four years after saddling Pipedreamer (2007) and Tazeez (2008) to victory; reminded backers to be cautious. Stating that the current odds were 'stupid' and that Nationalism 'should be nearer 7 or 8/1 chance at least' given their are 35 runners in the race.
Whether Gosden's comments deter punters and the price drifts ahead of the off at 3:40 on Staurday remains to be seen but with the rain continuing to fall at the Suffolk track, the softening ground is only going to stregnthen the case for Nationalism's chances following his win on easy going last time out.
The closest rival to Nationalism in the betting market is 11/1 chance, Star Right. The Luca Cumani trained runner failed to justify favoruitism over a mile at the Curragh last time out but the manner in which he was runnign on towards the end to finish fourth in a field of 25 suggests he should appreciate the extra furlong at Newmarket but the going remains an unknown.
One horse who should have no problem with the ground is John Gosden's other runner, Taqleed, who won with give in the ground at Newmarket's July course last time out and with a similar profile to his stablemate, Nationalism, could be open to further improvement as he seeks to land a hat-trick of wins.
Absinthe is another hat-trick seeker with a great chance on proven gorund and with stamina proven after winning over 10 furlongs in August, he is sure to be in the shake up if things fall right for the Walter Swinburn trained runner.
Ransom Note, who won a valuable handicap at York's Ebor meeting last time out boasts the best piece of known form in the race and despite potentially being a little more exposed than some of his rivals cannot be ruled out following some excellent efforts in better company this season.
Of the bigger priced runners, Set the Trend makes plenty of each way appeal following his win in the Shegar Cup Mile in August where he ran on well to suggest that he could have more to offer. The Andrew Balding runner will not be hampered by any worsening of the ground and with Totesport and Blue Square both paying five places in each way backers, the 20/1 looks tempting and will be most welcomes by bookmakers who will be out to get Nationalism beat.
Latest Cambridgeshire Odds Comparison
Posted: Friday, 1st October 2010
Author: Tony Smith
Tags: nationalism, john gosden, newmarket, totesport,
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