There's a stellar field assembled at this week's HSBC Golf Championship in Abu Dhabi as the top four in the world's rankings line up in the first event of the 'Desert Swing'. The Race to Dubai really hots up this week as the likes of Donald, Westwood, McIlroy and Kaymer line-up alongside a certain Tiger Woods who makes a rare appearance on the tour. Add into the mix Jason Day, Charl Schwartzel and K.J. Choi it really is a strong cast in this, the seventh edition of the tournament.
The course is just short of 7000 yards so it's not a monster by modern standards but the rough can be penal, cut to around 32mm, 64mm and 72mm. Made up of rye grass the ball will likely sit down if finding the rough and word has it the fairways have been cut narrower than recent seasons so precision off the tee will be paramount.
The odds compilers at Bet365 probably didn't know where to start when pricing this one up and it looks as though they've gone down the route of putting course form first, with Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy heading the betting as 13/2 joint favourites. Kaymer's form at this event is nothing less than stunning. A winner when in his rookie season in 2008, he then finished runner-up behind Paul Casey in 2009 before coming back the last two years with wins. Add to this the manner of the victories, by four shots in 2010 and a massive eight shots last year then it's fair to say this course suits his eye.
Kaymer may have started 2011 off with a bang but following a disappointing effort at the Masters in April the German decided to adopt a swing change to promote a right to left draw rather than his natural fade. This transisitional period left Kaymer struggling on the course by his high standards and although he began to show some form at the end of last season, time will tell whether he's as accurate off the tee as he was here twelve months ago. With this in mind, the 13/2 about his chances in such a strong field looks pretty skinny and there's better value to be had elsewhere.
McIlroy is no stranger to the head of the betting and in 2011 got his maiden major win in the US Open. He also makes his seasonal debut here this week like many of those at the top end of the betting and he's another player with good course form. The Northern Irishman finished second here in behind Kaymer last season and also has a third and fifth place finish to his name on the two starts prior to that. If McIlroy brings his a-game then he'll be amongst the leaders but once again the price is rather off putting.
All eyes will be on Tiger Woods this week who makes his 2012 debut in Abu Dhabi. The former world number one recorded his first victory since 2009 last Autumn, but that was a small field in a competition he hosted, so this should pose more of a test. With emphasis on straight driving it will be interesting to see if Tiger's long game holds up. The one aspect of his game that has really suffered the last few years is his putting and with the greens this week being described as perfect, he'll have no excuses. At 9/1 you could be getting a big price for an on song Tiger but we've saying that about him for some time now and he's probably best left alone this week.
It's a measure of things that Luke Donald is the biggest price of the four who top the world rankings when he is the official number one. It's not a course he's too familiar with having only played once a few years ago where he finished tied for eleventh. Donald was the most accurate golfer off the tee on the Race to Dubai last season and his putting stats also add up. At 14/1 he'd be the value pick of those right at the head of the betting and the bookies could be underrating his chances.
At 22/1 Sergio Garcia catches the eye. The Spaniard bounced back last season after a barron spell winning his own Castello Masters and following that up a week later at Valderrama with the Andalucia Masters. This is an altogether stronger field this week but an 9th place finish in the Open Championship last July followed up by a 11th in the PGA Championship is evidence he can still mix it with the best. With emphasis on driving, Garcia is arguably the best striker of a golf ball in world golf and with nice quick greens he can pencil grip his way around and challenge this week.
Having a look at others in with a chance this week, Charl Schwartzel (28/1) has course form and had a top five finish in last week's Volvo Golf Champions, whilst bomber Alvaro Quiros (30/1) reserves some of his best performances for the desert. Padraig Harrington is a 45/1 chance with Bet 365and despite the Irishman playing well for large periods in South Africa last week he still looks liable to chuck in the odd terrible drive when under pressure.
Further down the betting is someone who could represent some value at odds of 125/1 with Bet365. Henrik Stenson has spent nearly two years in the wilderness now since a career high win in the TPC at Sawgrass in 2010. A mixture of injury and loss of form has seen Stenson slip right down the rankings but the Swede does have an impressive record in this event. He finished second in the inaugural event back in 2006 before another top ten finish in 2007 when he tied for 8th. He secured another second place in 2008 and has since finished 21st and 40th when not really on his game at all.
There have been brief glimpses of Stenson returning to form over the last 18 months, finishing 9th in the BMW International in Germany last season and he also finished third at the Open the year before last. Two of the Swede's six wins have come in the desert and he clearly loves the place basing himself in Dubai. It's a leap of faith but at 125/1 it's worth a small each-way bet.
Abu Dhabi Golf Championship Tips
Tip #1: Luke Donald each-way @ odds of 14/1 with Bet365.
Tip #2: Sergio Garcia each-way @ odds of 22/1 with Bet365.
Tip #3: Henrik Stenson each-way @ odds of 125/1 with Bet365.
13/2 Martin Kaymer
13/2 Rory McIlroy
9/1 Tiger Woods
12/1 Lee Westwood
14/1 Luke Donald
22/1 Sergio Garcia
28/1 Charl Schwartzel
30/1 Alvaro Quiros
35/1 Jason Day
40/1 Graeme McDowell
40/1 Peter Hanson
45/1 K.J. Choi
45/1 Padraig Harrington
55/1 Robert Karlsson
55/1 Branden Grace
60/1 Francesco Molinari
66/1 BAR
Odds supplied by Bet365.com, who go a quarter the odds the first five home on each way bets and will be live in-running throughout the tournament.
Posted: Tuesday, 24th January 2012
Author: Russell Lloyd
Tags: european tour, abu dhabi hsbc golf championship, luke donald, tiger woods, bet365,
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