NFL 2016 Week 16 Picks

Christmas weekend also coincides with the penultimate weekend of the NFL season, and fans of the sport should remember that the main slate of games, 11 this week, which usually take place on a Sunday, will kick-off on Saturday, with five others punctuating Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday night prime time slots.

With over half of the league still in contention for the eight remaining playoff berths, there's plenty at stake this week and five of the six teams that make up this weekend's three picks, all remain involved in the race to win Super Bowl 51.

It may pay to avoid concentrating on which teams will cover the spread this week, as teams don't need to worry about margins of victory, as the win is all that matters. Equally, it is worth considering that some teams may have already called time on their season. As such, we've chosen to concentrate on the total points in three games involving teams that all have something to play for. All three are worth backing as singles at 10/11, whilst the treble is a 6/1 shot.

NFL 2016 Week 16 PicksOddsWon/LostBet
Tips: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills - Over 42.0
@ 10 / 11  
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders - Over 53.0
@ 10 / 11  
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks - Over 43.0
@ 10 / 11  
Treble Pays @ 6 / 1  

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills - Over 42.0

After New England clinched the AFC East on Sunday, fellow divisional rivals, Miami and Buffalo, are both chasing a wildcard spot, the Dolphins blazing the trail with a 9-7 record, whilst the Bills must win their final two games to stand a chance of reaching the post-season for the first time since 1999!

Any game that involves two teams in a must-win scenario, always has the potential to be a shoot-out, especially when both have been involved in their share of high scoring games, as these two have on several occasions already this season. One of those included the reverse fixture in October, when the Bills won 28-25.

Since that defeat, Miami has lost just once, with seven of those eight games since that meeting going over the total points. In a similar vein, seven of the eight games that Buffalo has played since then have also gone over the total.

Additionally, the Dolphins four AFC East games this season have all gone over the total, whilst three of the Bills four division games have gone over.

Everything points to this game being higher scoring than the line of 42 points, suggests. So the advice is to play the overs.

Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders - Over 53.0

The Raiders are in the playoffs for the first time since 2003 (when they reached Super Bowl)! Victory over the San Diego Chargers last Sunday and defeat for the Kansas City Chiefs, ensured that the Raiders clinched the AFC West and they are in a head-to-head race with the New England Patriots to secure home field advantage in the the post-season, so this remains a must win game.

Saturday's visitors, the Indianapolis Colts, are also in a must win situation, as defeat would rule them out of the race to win the AFC South, sitting one win behind the 8-6 Tennessee Titans and and Houston Texans, with two to play. However, last weekend's 34-6 demolition of the Minnesota Vikings, suggested that the Colts aren't prepared to give up on their season just yet.

In their last four games on the road, the Colts have scored 34, 31, 41 and 34 points, picking up four victories in the process! They now face a Raiders defense that is averaging 24 points per game to opposing offenses, so finding the endzone should be no problem for quarterback, Andrew Luck, and his supporting cast on the Colts offense. However, the Raiders boast the NFL's third best offense, averaging 27 points per game, improving to 32.5 points per game at home, based on their last four victories in the Bay Area, where they return following back-to-back road games.

With the stakes high and both these sides firing on offense, the total is understandably high, with bookmakers setting it at 53, however, this could still prove to be lenient and the call is for this game to easily surpass that mark, especially when considering that Oakland homes games are 5-1 in favour of overs this season, whilst Colts road games are also 5-1 in favour of the overs.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks - Over 43.0

One season after reaching the NFC Championship game, the Arizona Cardinals have nothing more to play for but pride, after slipping to a 5-8-1 record in 2016. However, despite just two wins in their last seven, they have had no problem putting points on the board, averaging 26 points per game, during that season ending run of form, with the team's highly regarded defense failing to perform.

Ironically, the last good game the Cardinals defense had was the 6-6 tie against Seattle in week seven. However, don't let that scoreline put you off the total in Saturday's re-match.

Seattle has already clinched the NFC West, but will be playing to win to secure more than one home game in the play-offs. The Seahawks are a perfect 7-0 at home this season, and extending that run shouldn't be a problem against Arizona, but a line of -9 looks a little high.

In those seven victories, Seattle has averaged 28 points per game, add to that all six of Arizona's road games have gone over the total points spread and the line of 43 looks ridiculously low, especially when the corresponding game last season finished 39-32 in favour of the visitors! There's no love lost between these divisional rivals, so expect this game to be lively throughout and the overs is a very confident pick in this one.

Posted: Thursday, 22nd December 2016
Author: Tony Smith
Tags: Bet365

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